Forex

No one wants to lose money, but risk-free investments do not yield much. Over time, leaving your money in the bank is not a profitable investment method. This means that investors must be willing to not necessarily lose capital, but to see their investments drop below cost for certain periods. But by how much, for how long and how likely is this to happen? These are fundamental questions that every investor should ask.

Much has been written about types of risk, but far less on the "quantum," namely how much your investments can decline and for how long. Generally, an investment that can lose a lot can gain just as much, but the focus of this article is on losses. (This strategy helps you to recognize your mistakes by allowing you to separate your emotions from investing, read The Importance Of A Profit/Loss Plan.)

Asset-Class Variation
Money in the bank is normally considered risk-free, disregarding inflation, but as one moves up the risk ladder through bonds, equity funds, individual equities, foreign funds, futures and so on, the amount that can be lost (or gained) increases. The process is sometimes gradual and sometimes in leaps and bounds.

It is not possible to put exact figures on what you can lose, but estimates can be made that are reliable enough to give you a good idea of what you are getting into. Also, what matters most is the relative, rather than the absolute declines or losses. That is, the fact that you can lose relatively far more with equities than with bonds is the core issue, not the actual percentages, which are extremely variable and unpredictable. (Just because you're willing to accept a risk, doesn't mean you always should, see Risk Tolerance Only Tells Half The Story.)

The Numbers
Let's take a bond fund, which is generally the next step up from cash in terms of safe investments. If times are bad for bonds, you stand to lose a few percent. Such funds tend to drop by between 3% and 12% (of course there is always the potential of higher losses). We are not talking about corporate bonds (which are roughly as risky as equities), but the usual mix that you get in a fund. Again, international bonds are much riskier and roughly equivalent to equities in terms of risk. For this reason, domestic bonds are considered a low-risk investment.

An equity fund is a big step up. When these markets take a battering, you stand to lose between 30% and 50%. Generally, the volatility is high, and charts of the ups and downs of these markets are quite radical. It is also important to note that most funds move roughly in line with the market. Unless you are with a (rare) fund that has a really serious risk-management strategy, do not expect the market to go down by 30% and your fund manager to ensure that your one only drops by 15%. This is not the way it usually works. Equity funds are thus medium-to-high risk, depending on the assets they contain.

Note also, that even if a particular fund is intrinsically medium risk, if they are all you have in your portfolio, you are definitely in a very high-risk situation. The risk you are taking with your money really must be seen in overall context of your other investments and assets. (Learn more in Modern Portfolio Theory: An Overview.)

Moving on to individual equities, you can lose a lot more. What is invested in one company that runs into bad times can plunge by 90% in a few weeks or even days. For this reason, funds are lower risk than individual equities. But a portfolio of 10 to 30 stocks with good risk management can be a whole lot more stable.

Currencies are also highly volatile, and can rise and fall by 20% or 30% within months. And if you have foreign equities, you could find that capital losses are compounded by currency losses (known as currency risk). Alternatively, the capital losses can be counterbalanced partly or largely by currency changes. However, this is a precarious game which needs to be played knowingly and with care, meaning with constant monitoring and control. (Hedging against currency risk can add a level of safety to your offshore investments read Protect Your Foreign Investments From Currency Risk.)

Futures and other highly leveraged investments are really top of the risk ladder. If things go wrong, you can lose it all overnight.

Freak Returns
The above figures are guides for normal times, that is, a normal business cycle. There are periods in which things can be a lot worse (or better). For instance, there are individual years in which an equity investment can lose you 50%. Likewise, a truly dreadful year for bonds can lose you 20%, but such periods are few and far between.

Trend Lengths
With respect to the length of ups and downs, equity and bond cycles vary, but the losses can be there for between a few weeks to a few years. There are also freak periods throughout history in which some or other asset class performs outstandingly for a couple of decades, or appallingly for equally long. There can also be trends within trends, that is, short cycles within a longer-term trend. In summary, it is very difficult to know how long the losses will be there, for this reason, work in terms of the potential losses and what you can afford, rather than the notion that you can simply "wait until they go up." Nonetheless, the shorter your investment horizon, the less risk you should take. (Learn how to reach your investment objectives while maintaining the right level of risk in Achieving Optimal Asset Allocation.)

Trend Causes
This is a complex issue and beyond the bounds of this article. So too is the question of how likely your particular investment is to take a dive. In short, all markets are subject to external forces and shocks. Political, economic, geographic, domestic, international and many other factors play a role in creating an environment that pushes the different types of investment up or down. And let's not forget psychology – if people panic and despair, an intrinsically sound investment can plummet. Conversely, if people start believing that the good times will last forever, a truly lousy investment can perform miracles - for a while. The implication of all this is to avoid low-diversification investments that can go down more than you are willing and able to accept. That way, you will not be in for nasty surprises.

Conclusions
What you can lose on a particular investment, namely its volatility, is fundamental to whether or not it is right for your circumstances and risk profile. If you are to understand what you may be getting into, you need to know in simple percentage terms what you stand to gain or lose. Only on this basis, can you build up a portfolio that is genuinely suitable. If the maximum you could lose makes your blood run cold, reduce your holding to a comfortable level or invest in something else altogether. (You might also want to check out Using Logic To Examine Risk.)

by Brian Bloch, (Contact Author | Biography)

Brian Bloch started his career as a business academic and moved into management journalism in the late '90s. His experiences as an investor with the financial industry led him into the personal finance area a few years ago, and he finds this line of work particularly rewarding and fascinating. As part of his personal finance work, Brian assists investors who have claims against brokers or firms. See his homepage at www.brian-bloch.com

During an economic downturn it seems investors and consumers are always fixated on the state of our economy and as a result, the focus is on next day, next week and next month. Considering that unemployment during these periods can rise as high as 10%, it's very easy to understand the short-term perspective with which many concern themselves. After all, it's hard to tell someone to think about the next year or two when they are concerned about the security of their employment. Indeed, if you are without a stable source of employment, not much else matters in terms of the state of the economy.

As hard as it is to believe during an economic downturn, economies recover, and in all likelihood come out even stronger than before. History is a very powerful indicator. Over the last 100 years, the United States has experienced numerous recessionary periods, including the Great Depression of the 1930s. In the end, we came out stronger. In addition, recessions encourage consumers to save, and a country with a net savings position is certainly stronger than a country with a net borrowing position. It's easier for the country to stimulate consumer demand when consumers actually have the means to buy things. (For more, read Recession And Depression: They Aren't So Bad.)

Inflation Defined
However, along with economic healing comes a necessary consequence: inflation. We are often taught in basic economics that inflation means "too much money chasing too few goods." Actually, a more accurate definition of inflation is simply too much money. Somewhere in this world there will always be goods or services for that money to find a home. (For more on inflation, read the Inflation Tutorial.)

Too much money can be a necessary consequence of financial recovery. The Fed's stimulative efforts during the financial crisis of 2008-2009 are an example of that. Moreover, as that recession became global, more and more countries expanded their balance sheets to aid their economies. In 2009, we saw the central bank really play its role as the "lender of last resort."

The Hidden Tax
Why is inflation so important not only to investors, but to average working Joes and their families? If you thought government taxation was the biggest threat to your hard-earned income, you are being victimized by the ravages of inflation.

Simple math reveals that inflation is a far more onerous tax than anything to come out of Congress. During years with 4% inflation, anyone with an interest-bearing account yielding 4% is effectively paying a 100% tax on interest income. In other words it makes no difference if you put your money in a savings account earning zero percent during periods of zero inflation or a savings account that pays you 4% a year during years when inflation is 4%. Either way, the effect is a "tax" that leaves the individual with no real income. Whatever money is spent comes out of capital.

In fact, most people would find it outrageous to pay an income tax of 120%, yet folks don't realize that 6% annual inflation is the economic equivalent.

The Light at the End of the Tunnel
Fortunately, there's light at the end of the tunnel in terms of what individuals can do to minimize the consequences of inflation, and in many cases, benefit from it. Once you understand the causes and consequences, the next step to combat the ravages of inflation is to learn to protect yourself from it.

Inflation doesn't occur over night. But you will see signs. When a recession hits, inflation will almost certainly follow, but not always immediately. Consumers tend not to spend and financial institutions and other businesses must work on deleveraging their balance sheets. But inflation is not something that needs to be timed in order for people to minimize its impact on the purchasing power of money.

What's important is that people realize the hidden taxation that inflation brings and how to arm yourself for its to erode your savings. (To learn more, see The Importance Of Inflation And GDP.)

Young Adult
For young individuals just getting into to the workforce or soon to be joining it, the ultimate tool against inflation is very simple: continue to invest in yourself. With decades of earning power in your future, the most significant way to benefit from the general effects of inflation is to continually improve in your particular craft.

A school teacher for example can invest by pursuing additional degrees which leads to pay raises and increased job security. Whatever it is you do always continue to invest in yourself. Doing so will give you the most bang for your buck.

Also, and this is important, spend less than you earn and avoid credit cards as much as possible. The secret to financial independence is to simply spend less than you earn, period. It's hard for me to sympathize with folks who are losing million dollar homes and seven-figure salaries and finding themselves broke. Sure the economy can be a catalyst, but the real issue is that many people live above what they can truly afford. A job loss is painful, but when you know you have no debt obligations, it's easier to pick yourself up and move on to something else. (For more, read Invest In Yourself With A College Education.)

Working Professional
Regardless of the state of the real estate market, owning a home is still the best investment you can make if it's done for the right reasons. Those reasons are that you desire to own the home as a place to live and not a property to flip. And now more than ever, buying a home is an excellent idea.

The most obvious example was the residential real estate market in 2008 and 2009. It was a buyer's dream. You could have negotiated down a price of a home to over 50% less than what they sold for only three years earlier. But aside from getting a good price, taking on long-term mortgage debt today will benefit the borrower at the expense of the lender. Inflation decreases the purchasing power of money, so if you take a 30-year mortgage today, you will likely be paying back that mortgage with less valuable dollars. On top of that, buying at depreciated levels vastly increases the likelihood that your home will appreciate in value over time.

And yes, every month you make a mortgage payment - assuming it's a principal and interest payment - is like putting money into a savings account. When home prices are depressed and inflation is a worry, it can be a great time to buy a home. And if it's your first home, you have money to make a suitable down payment (10-20%) and your credit is good, banks are happy to lend to you. (To learn more, check out Top Tips For First-Time Home Buyers.)

Retirees
For those about to retiree, it's not as simple because unfortunately, time is not on your side. If you have been doing the things outlined above - you have little or no debt and own a home (which by should be close to mortgage free), then the best options are investments like Treasury inflation protected securities. Exposure to 'AAA'-rated corporate bonds may also be wise for part of your portfolio. Also, it's a good idea to have a little exposure to stocks, particular large cap value names. These companies tend to do relatively well in most economies and offer respectable yields.

Knowledge is Power
Understand that the hidden effects of inflation are the key to protecting yourself. Inflation affects us all in some fashion. You don't need to know that inflation is happening this month or next to prepare yourself. You just need to understand that attention to simple financial prudence - avoidance of debt, living below your means and making sensible investments - will likely leave you better protected in the future. (For a complete look at the causes and implications of inflation, see our Inflation Tutorial.)

by Sham Gad, (Contact Author | Biography)

It’s a well known fact that trading in the forex market can be an excellent way to make money. Anxious to participate, I was inspired to start searching for a way to learn all about this market and how to trade it. But after long hours of crawling thru websites too numerous to mention, reading [...]
Posted August 30th, 2008 under Forex Trading, Forex Trading Software. Tags: Charles Floyd, fores, Forex Auto Pilot, forex autopilot, forex market, Forex Trading, Marcus Leary, trading plans, trading strategy, trading techniques. Comments: 8

The Expert Advisor is a very sophisticated trading software tool. Each one is built upon a specific set of rules, sits on your trading platform and executes your trades. Actually, it is a robot.
Most forex traders fail because they fall prey to the human emotions of fear and greed. However, trading with an Expert Advisor [...]
Posted September 14th, 2008 under Forex Trading, Forex Trading Software. Tags: expert advisor, expert advisors, Forex Trading Software, trading software. Comments: 5

A new version of the Expert Advisor, Forex Autopilot System (FAPS) has been released. It appears to work better in any market direction and eliminates some of the weaknesses in the old system.
Below is a list of the lastest changes:
- The times are adjustable now. You can set the exact time you want FAPS to start [...]
Posted October 7th, 2008 under Forex Trading, Forex Trading Software. Tags: currency trading, FAPS, forex autopilot, forex robot, Forex Trading, trading forex. Comments: 8

by Richard U. Olson
If you, like a lot of others now are considering taking up online Forex trading, you may well be interested in a solution which allows you to make Forex trades while you sleep, work, even while you are on vacation! Technology has advanced, making software which was once thousands of dollars as [...]
Posted November 23rd, 2008 under Forex Trading Software. Tags: auto trading software, baby boomers business, Finance, forex ea, forex market, forex signals, investing, managed forex, meta trader 4, money market, part time business, passive income, recession proof business, trader software. Comments: 1

In a bad economy there are only a few choices you can make to profit with investments. Stock prices are tumbling and that’s why the experts recommend that traders stay away from the markets right now. In such tumultous times, there is still a way you can keep your portfolio safe. You can use auto [...]
Posted January 19th, 2009 under Forex Trading, Forex Trading Software, Money Matters. Tags: currency market, currency trading, Finance, forex education, forex market, Forex Trading, forex trading education, Forex Trading. Tags: business, Forex Training, investing, learn currency trading, learn forex, learn to trade forex, spot market, trading education, trading forex education. Comments: None

by forexStop
When it comes to trading one of the crucial areas that you must learn, and is pivotal in helping to protect your capital and to make you a successful trader is Stop Losses. A stop loss is an order to buy (or sell) a security/contract if the price of the security is to go [...]
Posted February 5th, 2009 under Forex Trading. Tags: business and finance, currency trading, Day Trading, Finance, Forex, Forex Trading, investing, make money, money and finance, money and investing, Online Business, online trading, Stock Market, stocks and shares. Comments: 1

Before you retire, take the time to figure out just how much money you’ll need for retirement. One of the biggest concerns for retirees is whether their retirement savings will last the rest of their lives–will they run out of money? Social Security is not the guaranteed source of retirement income it once was, and [...]
Posted February 6th, 2009 under Forex Trading, Money Matters. Tags: Cash Flow, Drastic Changes, Equity Financing, Hinges, Home Equity, Home Mortgage, Interest Rate, investing, IRA distributions, Late Date, long term care insurance, medicare, Minor Changes, Money Tips, portfolio, Pros And Cons, Public Assistance. Comments: 1

Author: Donald Saunders
Insurance is designed to protect you from disasters and their financial consequences. There are many kinds of insurance and the the most important of these is considered to be life insurance which makes financial provision for your family following your death.
As there are various financial commitments you need to meet in life you [...]
Posted April 5th, 2009 under Forex Trading. Comments: None

What does Instant Forex Profit’s website have to say about itself? This is Directly from their website:

Best Forex Trading Software – Automatically Generate Your Trading Decisions When You Relax
Perfect for part-timers – even geeks need a life! I wanted to it take no more than five minutes a week, maximum.
Profit-making – I wanted to make sure [...]

Posted April 6th, 2009 under Forex Trading. Comments: None

When the company does well and makes a profit, the value of the stocks rise. Stock owners can sell their shares for a profit or hold on to the stock for even more gain in the future. Sometimes companies will issue dividends – part of the profits that are distributed to share holders.
Stocks are traded [...]
Posted July 13th, 2009 under Forex Trading. Tags: Forex, stocks. Comments: None

After decades of making things worse our administration is about to start the long mission of healing the economy. But of course it’s not that simple. Every step along the way they will have to fight those who don’t really want economic recovery. All they want is to reset things to the period where they [...]
Posted February 9th, 2009 under Finance. Tags: economic recovery. Comments: None

Author: Scott P. McKay

As the worlds economic crisis deepens more and more people are for the first time in their lives, having to deal with bad credit. And like a lot of average consumers, many of these people have never seen real copies of their credit report before. Once someone decides to try to increase their credit [...]

Posted March 15th, 2009 under Finance, Money Matters. Tags: bad credit, credit bureaus, credit monitoring trial, credit reports, economic crisis, free credit report scams, free credit reports. Comments: None

Before you retire, take the time to figure out just how much money you’ll need for retirement. One of the biggest concerns for retirees is whether their retirement savings will last the rest of their lives–will they run out of money? Social Security is not the guaranteed source of retirement income it once was, and people generally don’t want to depend on public assistance or their children during their retirement years. Whether you might run out of money hinges upon several factors; how much money you’ve saved, how long you need your savings to last, and how quickly you spend your money, to name a few. You’ll be better off if you can tackle these issues before retirement by maximizing your retirement nest egg. But, if you are entering retirement and you still have concerns about making your savings last, there are several steps you can take even at this late date. The following are tips and ideas to help make sure you don’t outlive your money.

Tips to help make your savings last longer

You may be able to stretch your retirement savings by adjusting your spending habits. You might be able to get by with only minor changes to your spending habits, but if your retirement savings are far below your projected needs, drastic changes may be necessary. Saving even a little money can really add up if you do it consistently and earn a reasonable rate of return.

Make major changes to your spending patterns

If you have major concerns about running out of money, you may need to change your spending patterns drastically in order to make your savings last. The following are some suggested changes you may choose to implement:

· Consolidate any outstanding loans to reduce your interest rate or monthly payment. Consider using home equity financing for this purpose.

· If your home mortgage is paid in full, weigh the pros and cons of a reverse mortgage to increase your cash flow.

· Reduce your housing expenses by moving to a less expensive home or apartment.

· If you are still paying off your home mortgage, consider refinancing your mortgage if interest rates have dropped since you took the loan.

· Sell your second car, especially if it is only used occasionally.

· Shop around for less expensive insurance. You’d be amazed how much you can save in a year (and even more over a period of years) by switching to insurance policies that have lower premiums, but that still provide the coverage you need. Life and health insurance are the two areas where you probably stand to save the most, since premiums can go up dramatically with age and declining health. Consult your insurance professional.

· Have your child enroll in or transfer to a less expensive college (a state university as opposed to a private one, for example). This can be a particularly good idea if the cheaper college has a strong reputation and can provide a quality education. You could save significantly over the course of just two or three years.

Make minor changes to your spending patterns

Minor changes can also make a difference. You’d be surprised how quickly your savings add up when you implement a written budget and make several small changes to your spending patterns. If you have only minor concerns about making your retirement savings last, small changes to your spending habits may be enough to correct this problem. The following are several ideas you might consider when adjusting your spending patterns:

· Buy only the auto and homeowners insurance you really need. For example, consider canceling collision insurance on an older vehicle and self-insure instead. This may not save you a bundle, but every little bit helps. Of course, if you do have an accident, the amount you saved on your premium could be wiped out very quickly.

· Shop for the best interest rate whenever you need a loan.

· Switch to a lower interest credit card. Transfer your balances from higher interest cards and then cancel the old accounts.

· Eat dinner at home, and carry “brown-bag” lunches instead of eating out.

· Consider buying a well-maintained used car instead of a new car.

· Subscribe to the magazines and newspapers you read instead of paying full price at the newsstand.

· Where possible, cut down on utility costs and other household expenses.

· Get books and movies from your local library instead of buying or renting them.

· Plan your expenditures and avoid impulse buying.

Manage IRA distributions carefully

If you’re trying to stretch your savings, you’ll want to withdraw money from your IRA as slowly as possible. Not only will this conserve the principal balance, but it will also give your IRA funds the opportunity to continue growing tax deferred during your retirement years. However, bear in mind that you must start taking required minimum distributions (RMDs) from traditional IRAs (but not Roth IRAs) after age 70½.

Use caution when spending down your investment principal

Don’t assume you’ll be able to live on the earnings from your investment portfolio and your retirement account for the rest of your life. At some point, you will probably have to start drawing on the principal. You’ll want to be careful not to spend too much too soon. This can be a great temptation particularly early in your retirement, because the tendency is to travel extensively and buy the things you couldn’t afford during your working years. A good guideline is to make sure you don’t spend more than 5 percent of your principal during the first five years of retirement. If you whittle away your principal too quickly, you won’t be able to earn enough on the remaining principal to carry you through the later years.

Portfolio review

Your investment portfolio will likely be one of your major sources of retirement income. As such, it is important to make sure that your level of risk, your choice of investment vehicles, and your asset allocation are appropriate considering your long-term objectives. While you don’t want to lose your investment principal, you also don’t want to lose out to inflation. A review of your investment portfolio is essential in determining whether your money will last.

Continue to invest for growth

Traditional wisdom holds that retirees should value the safety of their principal above all else. For this reason, some people totally shift their investment portfolio to fixed-income investments, such as bonds and money market accounts, as they approach retirement. The problem with this approach is that it completely ignores the effects of inflation. You will actually lose money if the return on your investments does not keep up with inflation. The allocation of your portfolio should generally become progressively more conservative as you grow older, but it is wise to consider maintaining at least a portion of your portfolio in growth investments. Many financial professionals recommend that you follow this simple rule of thumb: The percentage of stocks or stock mutual funds in your portfolio should equal approximately 100 percent minus your age. So, for example, at age 60 your portfolio should contain 40 percent stocks and stock funds (100% – 60% = 40%). Obviously, you should adjust this rule according to your risk tolerance and other personal factors.

Basic rules of investment still apply during retirement

Although you will undoubtedly make changes to your investment portfolio as you reach retirement age, you should still bear in mind the basic rules of investing. Diversification and asset allocation remain important as you make the transition from accumulation to utilization.

Laddering investments

Laddering investments is a method of controlling your investments to avoid having them all mature at the same time. The principle of laddering is simple: Stagger the maturity dates of the associated deposits or investments so that they mature in different time periods. You can apply laddering to any type of deposit, loan, or security having a specified maturity date, such as bonds.

Laddering can reduce interest rate risk

Interest rates rise and fall in response to many factors. Consequently, they are largely unpredictable. Whether you apply laddering to a cash reserve or use it in portfolio investing, minimizing interest rate risk is one of its most important benefits. Thus, you are unlikely to be consistently locked into lower-than-market interest rates.

A single large deposit or investment that matures during an interest rate slump will leave you with two undesirable choices regarding reinvestment. You can hold the money in a low-interest savings account until rates improve or roll it over at the now low rate. However, a later rebound of interest rates can catch you locked into the prior low rate for an extended period. Breaking your investment into smaller pieces and laddering maturity dates allows you to avoid this situation.

How do you do it?

When you first begin your laddering strategy, you will need to acquire several term deposits (e.g., certificates of deposit) or securities with specified maturity dates. Initially, your individual investments should have terms of varying lengths, and you should intend to hold them until maturity. This will set up your staggered maturity dates. For example, you might purchase three separate certificates of deposit–one with a three-month term, one with a six-month term, and one with a nine-month term. When you reinvest as your CDs mature, your new investments should each be of the same length to perpetuate the staggering, or laddering, of maturity dates. Keep your laddering strategy intact by promptly redepositing each maturing investment for a new term.

Long-term care insurance

A catastrophic injury or debilitating disease that requires you to enter a nursing home can destroy your best-laid financial plans. You will need to decide whether to take out a long-term care insurance policy that may cover nursing home care, home health care, adult day care, respite care, and residential care. If you decide to purchase such a policy, you’ll need to choose the best time to do so. Typically, unless you have a chronic condition that makes you more likely to require long-term care, there is generally no reason to begin thinking about this issue before age 50. Usually, there is no reason to purchase such a policy before age 60.

Won’t Medicare pay for any long-term care expenses you might incur?

Contrary to popular belief, Medicare will not pay for most long-term care expenses, and neither will any health insurance you may have through your employer. Medicare benefits are only available if you enter a nursing home within 30 days after a hospital stay of three days or more. Even then, Medicare typically will only provide full coverage for 20 days of skilled nursing home care in Medicare-approved facilities. (Most people do not require skilled nursing care, as this is generally defined as the care of a physician or registered nurse). After 20 days, Medicare will cover part of the cost of care. You will pay $128 per day in 2008, and Medicare will cover the rest. No further coverage is available after 100 days. Studies show that approximately 40 percent of all people over age 65 will require nursing home care sometime before they die. The average nursing home stay is about 462 days, and if you are part of that 40 percent, your long-term care expenses could easily use up your hard-earned savings, leaving you with little or no money on which to live.

What about Medicaid?

Medicaid is sponsored jointly by federal and state governments. Each state’s Medicaid program is required to provide certain minimum medical benefits to qualified persons, including inpatient hospital services, nursing home care, and physicians’ services. States also have the option of providing additional services. All states require proof of financial need. However, each state has different rules regarding benefits and eligibility, so it is essential that you understand your state’s Medicaid program before you decide that Medicaid will provide adequate long-term care coverage.

How much does long-term care insurance cost?

Unfortunately, long-term care insurance can be quite expensive. If you begin coverage when you are younger, premiums will be more reasonable, but you will likely be paying for the insurance for a much longer period of time. Although the cost of LTCI varies depending on your age, the benefits, and the insurer you choose, a person aged 65 to 69 purchasing an individual policy can expect to pay premiums of between $2,000 and $10,000 per year.

For more information on financial planning, visit www.iamllc.biz

Source: Late Date

February 6th, 2009 | Forex Trading, Money Matters

The Hope 4 Homeowners (H4H) program is aimed at helping homeowners that have found themselves owing more on their mortgage than their home is worth. The lower monthly mortgage payment is the result of the program reducing the principal balance of the current mortgage.

How will it Help?

The Hope for Homeowners program puts the homeowner into a mortgage based on their home’s current value. A Hope 4 Homeowners’ loan will be 90% of the current value of the home. Not all aspects of this program are positive. The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) and your current lender will share in any profits of the house when the homeowner sells their home. This offsets the balance that has been forgiven. {The reduced loan amount results in a lower montly payment}.

Take a Look:

Let’s say that your current mortgage balance is $400,000 and your home is now worth $250,000. There are millions of homeowners that find themselves in this scenario. You are currently making a mortgage payment on a loan that is much greater than the value of your home. The Hope to Homeowners loan will issue a new loan that is equivalent to 90% of the home’s current value. $225,000 is the new loan mortgage balance in this scenario. That is a reduction of $175,000 in the principal balance of your mortgage. The new mortgage payment will be based on this new loan amount of $175,000.

I want to Calculate the New Payment?

There are benefits beyond the principal reduction in your mortgage. The Hope to Homeowners loan payment will also be reduced. Let’s say the current mortgage is $400,000 at 6% on a 30 year fixed (the benefits are even greater if you are in an adjustable rate mortgage). The current payment is $2,398. The interest rate will often be reduced but for this example lets assume that it is not. Payments for the Hope for Homeowners loan for this example are $1,348. The mortgage payment is reduced by $1,050 monthly. There are obvious benefits.

There are some qualifying factors that homeowners need to understand. Every homeowner should do their own research into this program to be sure that it makes sense for your scenario. You need to realize that there are some negative aspects of this loan. You may give up some of the equity that your home builds when you sell your home. Americans will be able to keep their homes with this program. The H4H program can and will provide some much needed hope to homeowners that are upside down on their mortgage.

This company is helping homeowners find the best way to utilize this program. H4H

• Saving Money on Your Mortgage
  Of course you want to save as much money on your mortgage as you can. The interest rate has a lot to…
• New Year’s resolutions – spend less than you earn and pay down debt
  Happy New Year-

Source: H4H

February 6th, 2009

Approximately 17% of drivers across the United States may be driving without insurance by 2010, these figures were compiled from research done by the Insurance Research Council. Although the estimated amount of uninsured drivers went down nationally from 14.9% in 2003 to 13.8% in 2007, this recession is expected to elevate the amount of non-insured drivers.

A recently published study, “Uninsured Motorists, 2008 Edition,” configures the amount of non-insured motorist across the country and by state from 2005 to 2007. The Insurance Research Council calculates the population of non-insured drivers by examining the ratio between injury claims made by non-insured motorists and insured motorists.

The research show recently obtained stats by state for bodily injury liability claims and non-insured drivers claim frequency and the ratio between bodily injury claims and non-insured drivers.

The severity of the non-insured driver situation differed greatly from state to state. In 2007, the biggest five non-insured motorist estimates by state were New Mexico 29%, Mississippi 28%, Alabama 26%, Oklahoma 24%, and Florida 23%. The five states with the lowest estimates of non-insured motorists were Massachusetts 1%, Maine 4&, North Dakota 5%, New York 5%, and Vermont 6%.

The data also showed a large correlation unemployed and the percent of non-insured drivers. The research shows if the unemployment rate increased to 1% it will correlate to an increase in the non-insured driver rate to more than 3/4 of 1%. Based on the projected unemployment rate figures, the percentage of non-insured drivers is expected to increase from 13.8% in 2007 to 16.1% in 2010.

“An increase in the number of uninsured motorists is an unfortunate consequence of the economic downturn and illustrates how virtually everyone is affected by recent economic developments,” said the Senior Vice President of the Insurance Research Council Elizabeth A. Sprinkel. “Responsible drivers who purchase insurance end up paying for injuries caused by uninsured drivers.”

The Insurance Research Council research studied data obtained from nine insurance companies, representing approximately 50% of the private passenger vehicle insurance market nationally.

With all this happening it will be hard to get discount auto insurance because as non-insured motorist claims grow the premiums for current insureds will also go up. Your best chance to get inexpensive auto insurance is to try to get as many free insurance quotes as possible and compare rates between companies.

Read helpful information about work from home – study hyperlinked web page.

Source: Insurance

February 8th, 2009

Of course this will also reset the environment that made this collapse possible. And if possible they would do this for as long as they can to squeeze the last nickel into their pocket.

For them the challenge is to fool everyone else for their own enrichment. You might ask why would they do that? The simple answer is: Greed! With this in mind let’s move along. The first thing to do is review the big picture. Originaly Social Security was set up as a safety net for retirement.

But the lure of all that money just lying about was too much. So the embezzlement began. At first the robbers said the money would be replaced. That lie was never believed.

In fact Social Security is now considered an entitlement by the the same parties that stole from it. You might wonder what is the connection here? This is the core pattern!

The founding fathers of America structured a government that could function. That structure has been twisted and corrupted. The money that our government prints was at one point certificates of gold. The gold stored in Fort Knox! Greed came into play so more money was printed then there was gold. This has continued until your money is not worth the paper it is printed on! If you do the math it becomes clear. This is the biggest ponzi scam of ALL TIME! What we have seen in recent times is original IOU’s being stolen and replaced by worthless IOU’s. Now here we are caught in this web of lies. And as incredible as it may seem many are asking why were we are having trouble getting credit. The assets are real but those asking for the loans are insufficient. They are unable to repay loans with true value. So America borrows from other nations.

And some of them don’t like us much. Is it any wonder that it will take a former Harvard Law Professor to help get us out of this one! Oh don’t forget we have some wars going on too.

At the time of this writing I only count 2, but of course that is subject to change. Is the situation hopeless? That depends on how you look at it. President Obama tells us this is a opportunity to expand our horizons and repair our infrastructure. This reminds me of the experiment of two little brothers. So if Obama wants to look for a pony in all of this shit, maybe he can pull it off. So far things are looking up.

Get helpful info for auto loan calculator – welcome to your personal tips store.

Source: Finance

February 9th, 2009 | Finance |

By Allen Jossim

Everywhere you turn opportunities for online business training abound. Most of these courses claim to make you fabulously successful in no time flat. But do they deliver? Are they worth the cost? Check out this source of FREE training before you make your choice!

Business training is typically obtained from either formal education or on the job training. Business Education is often a broad brush approach covering of a wide range of business theory with very little real world exposure. Actual on the job training however, is where theory meets reality and money is made or lost. During on the job training you learn how the business works. Money is on the line and mistakes must be avoided.

Almost every online business training course falls into the education category. Heavy on theory and talk of how much money you can make but extremely light on actual step by step examples to implement the ideas discussed. So how do you find on the job training when the typical internet company does not hire employees?

The best and most effective training you can find is in affiliate programs.

Go to ClickBank and check out any of the opportunities with affiliate programs that offer affiliate sales material. This is where you will find reality. It often looks like nothing but sales propaganda aimed at you, but think about it.

The success of the affiliates directly affects the success of the parent company. It is in the company’s best interest to assure that its’ affiliates have nothing but the finest information and knowledge to work with. The parent company wants you, as an affiliate, to succeed! Many companies offer free, detailed, step by step instruction on how to sell their product.

Here is what I found in just one company affiliate site FREE: A website to sell from, a list of websites to advertise on, copy and paste audio and text links for your website, actual emails to send out, actual articles, blog posts and ezine ads to copy and paste into your site, auto responder information and much more. The site ends with a detailed, step by step, day by day process of how to set up, implement and monitor your entire sales campaign. A treasure trove of free knowledge!

Combine this targeted on the job training with a general overview education of how online businesses work and you have quite an education. And the best part of all, it is FREE!

Allen Jossim is a 12 year internet seller who also runs the Online Business Forum where a wealth of additional information is always available.

February 12th, 2009

Forex2Stay has a very good blog post on Money Management. He has posted on this site before and uses the following formula to determine the size of a given trade:

S=(e*r) / (p-x)

Where:
S = Size of trade
e = portfolio equity(Cash and holdings)
r = maximum risk percentage per trade
p = entry price on the trade
x = pre-determined stop loss or exit price (based on TA)

Read the rest of his post at http://forex2stay.blogspot.com/2006/06/money-management.html

He mentions one gentlemen he met that makes money management his top priority and I checked out his site. He has some great stuff here: http://members.aon.at/tips/moneyMan.htm

I already like what I'm reading. Fear. I have fear of letting my winner run. I packaged these Money Management pages into a PDF.

Forex Money management 13/06/2006,10:03 960.08 Kb

Popularity: 2%

I'm going to take the opportunity to call this week, Money Management Week. A lot of what I'll be posting will hopefully be related to this topic which probably means that website traffic will decrease. This would not be unusual considering that "on average, traders spend at least 10 times more time and effort on seeking the magic formula for trading than on learning to manage the trade." (Source: Matt Blackman, "Losing to Win")

I've been very aware of the fact that money management is the most important aspect of trading but hopefully by bringing this subject into the forefront this week will make you and I even more aware.

From a lot of the backtesting and forward testing I've done over the last year, it's become quite evident that winning percentage for most systems are below 40%. Some hover around the 40% level and others are even lower, reaching the 20%-30% level and below. According to Perry Kaufman, author of "A Short Course in Technical Trading" and a veteran trader, trend-following systems are the best trading systems around. But he also states that you can expect 6 or 7 out of every 10 trend trades to be losses, some small losses and some a little larger. For this reason, a lot of beginner and novice traders wonder how it's possible to ever be profitable trading.

The point is that the focus shouldn't be placed on how to achieve an unrealistic expectation for your win to loss ratio but to concentrate on money management. I'll admit that money management hasn't been my prime focus and it's reflected in the subject of my posts over the last year. In fact, I've only tagged 1 post with the subject money management attached to it.

This week I'll be gathering together some useful links to money management articles and I'll also be talking more about money management as it pertains to my trading. Larry Williams, a veteran trader said, "Since losses are an integral part of this game, a strategy is as essential as the proper attitude. All jobs have good days and bad days so deal with it…"

Losing to Win

Popularity: 2%

OK, so I'll admit that I'm using a catchy headline to force people to enhance their knowledge on the all important subject of Money Management.

I went to Borders yesterday to search for some literature on money management and found a majority of trading books having only one or two pages on the subject. I couldn't find a book dedicated to the subject, though I know there are several out there. One book I spent some time reading had a pretty large money management section. It was called "High Probability Trading" by Marcel Link. I didn't take notes though so I already forgot a lot of what I read. One thing I was able to take away from the book was the comparison between you as a trader and a casino. As a trader, you would benefit most by acting like a casino. The casino has established rules for their games that provide them with an edge. For example, with most bets in the game of roulette, the house has an edge of 5.26%. They are not concerned with any one person winning unless this person compromises this edge like counting cards. They are more concerned about all gamblers as a whole. The casino expects that in the long run, of all the money bet on the roulette wheel, they will come out on top 5.26%. I'm sure in most cases, it's a lot more. As a trader, money management isn't quite good enough if you don't have a system with some sort of edge. The bigger the edge, the better.

There is an excellent website on money management that I had talked about in a previous post months ago. The content isn't presented all that great though. Information is scattered and there are sections where the presenter just copies and pastes certain content relevant to the subject. Nevertheless, it is the best site I've seen out there that's dedicated to money management and I'll attempt to summarize the important points starting from the first section.

Source: http://members.aon.at/tips/moneyMan1.htm

"We cannot influence how the markets will behave, (therefore) we should
at least exercise control over those variables that we have actual
control of." This is where money management comes into the picture.

Q & A

Q. What is the difference between risk management and money management?

A. Risk management deals mainly with maximizing profits using
contract sizes. Money management deals mainly with minimizing losses
using stops as well as showing you when to take profits. You must have
both.

Q. What is the Percent Risk Model?

A. Simply, it is using a certain percentage of your capital for position sizing.

Q. What is constant risk?

A.
Adjusting your stops according to your system and peel off (reduce)
contracts when the risk got above the level you wanted to maintain.

Q. What is Market Wizard "money management" rule?

A. Always risk exactly 2.6% of total (closed + open) account equity on every trade

TIPS FOR FAILURE

1. Trading 1 contract at a time will cause you to fail.

TIPS FOR SUCCESS

1. The key is to have more positions when you are right and less positions when you are wrong.
2. Stagger out of your trades when wrong or put another way, stagger your stop losses
3. Hold on to all positions when right
4. Never let a winner become a loser by adjusting your stops as the market moves with you
5. Know
   the Pareto Principle, also known as the 80-20 rule which when applied
   to trading states that 80% of your profits comes from 20% of your trades
6. Stay with all of your positions until they meet the minimum profit objective
7. Exit a portion of your trade at the minimum profit objective.
   Hold the rest using a trailing stop to take advantage of huge trenders
8. Remain unbiased or without opinion as to the market direction.
   Realize there is no such thing as overbought/oversold and no price is
   too high or too low.
9. Like your losses because losing is a big part of trading and it also puts you one step closer to a winning trade
10. Visualize what you want to accomplish before getting there

[Read more]

Popularity: 1%

I just finished this flowchart that summarizes the flow of a trade using money management techniques. Of course, this is totally discretionary from the amount of lots traded, stop loss placement and target profit placement. If it's useful to me or you, maybe I'll add hyperlinks to pictures of chart examples.

Popularity: 1%

Since I have deemed this week, "Money Management Week", I felt like I should mention a new Investopedia article titled, "A Logical Method of Stop Placement." I'm not overly impressed by the article but you might find it more useful than I did. The author gives a brief overview of 5 different types of stop methods:

1. Hard stop - placing a stop a predefined number of pips away from the entry price
2. ATR % stop - stop calculated by taking a percentage of the current ATR
3. Multiple day high/low - placing stops at predetermined day's low or high
4. Closes above/below price levels - placing stops above or below specific price levels (ie: double zeros)
5. Indicator stop - stopping out a position based on the value of a certain indicator (RSI, ROC, CCI, etc)

You can read the article in its entirety.

Popularity: 3%

The Martingale Method is not a trading system, it is a money management method, moreover an interesting one. Follow with me because the logic is simple. You can read more about the Martingale Probability Theory here.

Martingale Method I

Assumptions:

• You are using a discretionary or mechanical trading system.
• You know your system well therefore you know how many consecutive losses your system has ever had. For this example, we'll assume your system has had at most 10 consecutive losses.
• You trade 3 lots.

Scenario:

• You have had 10 losses in a row trading 3 lots per trade.

Conservative Martingale Method I Example:

1. On your very next trade after losing 10 in a row, increase the lot size to 4
2. If this 4 lot trade is a winner, go back to normalcy trading 3 lots. Your done using Martingale for now
3. If this 4 lot trade is a loser, increase the lot size to 5
4. If this 5 lot trade is a winner, go back to normalcy trading 3 lots. Your done using Martingale for now
5. If this 5 lot trade is a loser, increase the lot size to 6
6. etc, etc, etc

Keep increasing lot sizes by 1 until you win. I think you get the point.

Martingale Method II

Assumptions:

• You are using a discretionary or mechanical trading system.
• You know your system well therefore you know the average number of losses your system has before turning a winner. For example, we'll say that on average, your system has 3 losses before turning a winner.
• You trade 3 lots.

Conservative Martingale Method II Example:

1. You are currently not in a trade. You will wait until your system has 3 consecutive losses before doing anything. You WILL NOT trade.
2. Once your system has 3 losses in a row, start trading your system again. Your first trade will be a 3 lot trade.
3. If you win, great. If you lose, increase the number of lots to 4.
4. Increase the number of lots until you win.

Aggressive Martingale Method II Example:

The only change here would be to enter your first trade with a larger lot size than normal after your system has 3 losses in a row. So instead of just trading 3 lots, trade 4.

Popularity: 4%

I wanted to show Kathy Lien's and Boris Schlossberg's trading results for the last 2 months so that everyone can see what reality is. For those of you that don't know who they are, they both have written books on trading Forex, are both currency analysts at FXCM and they both regularly appear on CNBC. The results below are for the trades that they made public. What goes on behind the scenes is obviously unknown to me.

Their results are good; they made 366 pips between September 29th and today. I'm bringing it up because I think it's important to have realistic expectations when trading. When I first started trading, I thought it would be easier to make a living doing this. I quickly changed my thinking. Also, when you see "experts" making 366 pips in 2 months, you wonder how it would ever be possible to do this full-time.

If you average 400 pips every 2 months trading 2 100K lots, that's a total of 2400 pips over the year. That's approximately $24,000 a year. That's it! That's not a lot of money. I think the only way to do this for a living is to have plenty of capitalization so that you can trade more than 2 lots. In order for you to make $96,000 a year, you would need to trade 8 100K lots each trade. That would give you 4 times as many pips and therefore 9600 pips over the year.

How much capital would you need to start if you wanted to trade 8 100K lots with only a 3% risk per trade to your account. Let's use 30 pips as a stop loss for this example. If you lost 30 pips trading 8 lots, you would lose a total of $2400. Therefore, you need to have $80,000 in your account if you only wanted to risk 3%.

If my calculations are off, let me know but the reality is, even if you can consistently make good trades each and every month, you need a lot of capital to start to make a living. I'm assuming that you have to make $96,000 a year but some of you may require much less. For those of you in the New York City area like me, $96,000 isn't rich and I'm sure it's the same for a lot of other people in California or other parts of the country or world.

Popularity: 2%

I mentioned the Martingale strategy a couple of weeks ago when I was focusing on money management.

http://www.forexproject.com/Blog/Investing_and_Trading/The_Martingale_Method/

There's a new article by Lien on Investopedia about the Martingale and its popularity with forex traders.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/06/martingale.asp

Popularity: 3%

I have definitely been sidetracked for some time now, preoccupied with only particular GBP/USD forex trading systems. Due to this fact, I feel like I've disregarded other aspects of technical analysis that may one day turn out to be useful. This started about 6 months ago after my first full year of trading, where I found myself sitting in front of my computer staring at charts for what felt like forever. I don't know if it was burn-out or if I just felt like these other forms of technical analysis required discretion, something that I wasn't successful at. it could also have been that I was looking for instant gratification after months of hard-core learning.

I'm not sure where my trading will be next year or this year for that matter but I feel the need to start concentrating on some of these neglected areas. It's strange that I spend so much time optimizing and organizing this website but I don't translate this over to my forex trading and studies. I feel very disorganized and sometimes behind in what others have learned in an equal or shorter period of time. I've said this before but I'm going to try to put together a list of things that I want to study and learn more about. I want to continue with my GBP/USD trading systems but I also want supplement other things into the fray. Just off the top of my head are:

1. Ichimoku specifically on the USD/JPY. I'm still reading the new ichimoku book that was sent to me but I've always been interested in this indicator and I want to explore it further
2. Chart patterns
3. Money Management
4. Carry Trades
5. Divergence
6. Fibonacci

These are only a few but I think the key as I said previously is to get organized and try to create a learning schedule so that I can become more adept at forex technical analysis.

Popularity: 8%

What is maximum drawdown? Why and how do I calculate it?

First, what is maximum drawdown? It is defined as the largest drop of a given asset within a certain time period.

Why calculate it? I've never made it a point to calculate maximum drawdown but I'm going to now. This is my attempt to start looking at more "advanced" money management concepts so I've decided to start with one of the easiest. The reason for calculating maximum drawdown is to measure the riskiness of your trading strategies. It will also give you an idea of how much money you could lose at some indeterminate point in time.

How do I calculate it? During the history of your trading strategy, I'm sure you'll be keeping track of your change in equity from one day to another, one week to another, one month to another, or whatever time period you choose. In the course of your trading, you will calculate drawdown which "represents the total percentage loss experienced by
a strategy before it starts winning again … and drives the
investment balance back up." (Source: http://www.confidentstrategies.com/maximum-drawdown.htm)

In this picture (Source: http://www.autumngold.com/Performance/DescriptionDD.htm), the drawdown is calculated with the following formula:

(Valley VAMI - Peak VAMI) / Peak VAMI

The Valley VAMI is the red arrow or approximately $1,100.

The Peak VAMI is the green arrow or approximately $1,425.

Therefore the drawdown is ($1100 - $1425)/$1425 or -22.8%.

Let's do 1 more example from the picture above. First let's find the Peak prior to the green arrow.

The Peak VAMI is approximately $1,250.

The Valley before the green arrow is at approximately $1,150.

Therefore the drawdown is ($1150-$1250)/$1250 or -8%.

So to find the maximum drawdown, select the drawdown that was greatest, in our example, -22.8%.

Popularity: 10%

I was turned on to an article in the New York titled "Blowing Up" by Rob Booker's blog. According to him, it's the best article he's read in a long time and I have to absolutely agree with him.

The article is about a money manager named Nassim Taleb who created an investment strategy "predicated entirely on the existence of black swans; on the possibility of some random, unexpected event sweeping the markets." Most traders dismiss this black swan as an unlikely event like Victor Niederhoffer who was one of the most successful money managers in the country at one time. Niederhoffer blew up his entire account by selling a large number of options, betting that the market would be quiet. The odds were totally in his favor he thought because the chances of the market going down so heavily were miniscule. Unfortunately for him, the market plummeted 8% in October, 1997 due to the economic crisis in Asia. Niederhoffer made the same mistake again and lost after two planes crashed into the World Trade Center. The black swan reared its head again.

Taleb takes an opposite approach and bets that the black swan will inevitable rear its head and when it does, he will have his payday. In the meantime, he compares the waiting as bleeding a slow death and most days as other money managers are making large sums of money, he's losing small amounts of money.

So as long as you have a definable risk which only threatens a small amount of your capital, you have a chance of riding a wave of profitability that outweighs these smaller losses. I don't want to oversimplify this because it's not easy but it is possible. Weigh your time and be patient. That unexpected event that could wipe out a traders account is right around the corner.

This is definitely worth the read. My summary doesn't give it justice. http://www.gladwell.com/2002/2002_04_29_a_blowingup.htm

Popularity: 8%

I've been slowing getting my Forex "legs" back by reading a book I picked up months ago. The Book is called "Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom" by Van K. Thorp. I picked it up months ago based on recommendations from Simon over on his blog. I can see why he thinks so highly of this book because it is so different from the plethora of trading books out there. Van stresses managing reward to risk in your trades and position sizing. I was certainly most interested in his position sizing chapter of which I'll be talking about more in the future.

Poor position sizing can kill your account. Risk too much on any given trade and it could be impossible to recover. I've been down this road before and the reasons for this were inexperience and greed. If you were to open a $1000 trading account and you lose $200 on your first trade, this would be a 20% drawdown. The percentage gain you need to recover from this loss is a possibly manageable 25%. But if you were to lose $400 on your first trade, or a 40% drawdown, you would need a 66.7% gain to recover from this loss. This information may be trivial and known by many, but the extent isn't quite noticeable until you see the following table. Losses beyond 50% require "huge, improbable gains in order to get back to even."

Recovery after Drawdown

Drawdowns, %	Gain to Recovery, %
5	5.3
10	11.1
15	17.6
20	25.0
25	33.0
30	42.9
40	66.7
50	100.0
60	150.0
75	300.0

Popularity: 10%

I took my first trade in months this past Thursday. I have been slowly trying to get back into the forex market by cautiously watching the GBP/USD. It's been a while since I followed any currency pair so I wanted to be sure that I watched the GBP/USD for a couple of days before taking any trade. I've decided to start referring to my profits/losses in terms of expectancy. Expectancy is "simply the mean or average R-multiple generated." (Source:http://www.iitm.com/sm-Expectancy.htm)

The "R" in R-multiple is short for risk. The best way to understand it is to either read the source above or continue reading. Let's take my first trade as an example. I knew my total dollar risk before entering the trade, that amount being $650.94. (yes, that exact) I exited half of my position when I had profited $329. I moved my stop to breakeven on the remaining position. Unfortunately I was stopped out on the rest giving me a total profit of $329. To figure out the R-multiple, you would take (profit / amount risked) which in this case was $329/$650.94 = .5R. Ideally, the higher the R in a profit situation, the better. For instance, a 2R multiple would be obtained in a 2:1 reward/risk trade and a 3R multiple in a 3:1 reward/risk trade. In a loss situation, a higher R is actually worse. Ideally, if you lose on a trade, the R-multiple should be 1R or less. If it's 1R, it simply means that you lost the amount you were expecting to risk. So in my above example, if I lost $650.94 on the entire trade, my R-multiple would have been 1R. Let's just say that I got stupid and decided to stay in the position and not honor my stop loss setting. Because of this stupidity, let's also say that I wound up losing $1301.88, twice as much as my initial risk. Calculating using (loss / amount risked) I would have an R-multiple of $1301.88/$650.94 = 2R.

So what does all of this mean? Well, I only have 1 trade to calculate my expectancy which would currently be .5R. I'll get more into calculating mean expectancy once I've compiled more trades. But having .5R isn't desirable because it basically means that I risked twice as much as the reward I obtained. This is exactly why I want to try to use R-multiple when I talk about my trades because even though I had a $329 profit on my first trade, it isn't as rosy as it may seem. The R-multiple was only a .5R and although it was profitable, if I trade this way in the long haul, I'll surely lose.

Another good source that also mentions the critics of R-multiple can be found at http://tradermike.net/2006/09/r_r-multiples_defined/

Popularity: 11%

UPDATE (January 2008) I’ve created an AJAX forex position size calculator that performs the calculations for you. You can find it at http://www.forexcalc.com

Here is a complete checklist to determine the most important aspect of money management, position sizing.

1. What is my account balance? $4234.58

2. What percentage of my account balance will I be risking? 1.0%

3. What is my stop loss on this particular trade? 50 pips

4. What currency pair am I trading? GBP/USD

5. How much is a pip worth on a 10K (mini) account? $1

6. CALCULATION What is my dollar risk amount? (Account Balance x Percentage Risk) $42.35

7. CALCULATION What is my position size (Dollar Risk Amount x 10000) ÷ (Stop Loss x Pip Worth)

NOTES

1. None.
2. It’s up to you to determine what percentage of your account balance that you want to risk. I’ve heard traders risking from 1.0%-5.0% per trade. I risk no more than 1.0%.
3. It’s important to determine what your stop loss will be before continuing with the checklist.
4. None.
5. This is the hardest to determine by hand with the exception of currency pairs with the USD in the quote currency such as the GBP/USD, EUR/USD, and AUD/USD. These currency pairs always have a pip worth of $1 on a 10K (mini) account. For other currencies, it’s easiest to use a pip value calculator. Make sure you use the pip value from the "Lot 10,000" column.
   
6. This is easy. Take the account balance and multiply it by .01 (1.0%), .02 (2.0%), etc. to obtain your dollar risk amount.
7. This is the most important calculation. Do it right.
   

EXAMPLE #1 (Answer questions 1 - 7)

1. $4234.58
2. 1.0%
3. 50 pips
4. EUR/USD
5. $1
6. USING A CALCULATOR-> ($4234 x .01) = $42.35
7. USING A CALCULATOR-> ($42.35 x 10000) ÷ (50 x $1) = (423500) ÷ (50) = 8470 units
   

What you might be thinking… I can only trade a mini-lot which is 10,000 units. This is more than my calculated position size. This means that you are under-capitalized. You need more capital to trade mini-lots. Another option is to use a variable-lot size broker like Oanda where you can specify 8470 units. Another option is to risk a smaller percentage per trade (use 0.5%.)

EXAMPLE #2 (Answer questions 1 - 7)

1. $10582.26
2. 2.0%
3. 75 pips
4. USD/JPY
5. $0.8829
6. USING A CALCULATOR-> ($10582.26 x .02) = $211.65
7. USING A CALCULATOR-> ($211.65 x 10000) ÷ (75 x $0.8829) = (2116500) ÷ (66.22) = 31962 units

In this example, you could enter a trade in the USD/JPY with 3 mini-lots or 30,000 units. If you have a variable-lot size broker like Oanda, you can enter a trade with 31,962 units.

There may be a better or quicker formula for calculating position size. This method works but if you know of a more efficient way, let me know.

Popularity: 10%